SAGE said the overall rate remained between 0.7 and 0.9 across the UK as a whole but admitted it may be a little higher in England
The UK's official coronavirus death toll today surpassed 40,000 as health chiefs announced 357 more Brits have lost their lives to the disease and scientists suggested the R rate has now risen to above the dreaded number of one in two regions of England.
Department of Health data shows 343 deaths occurred in England, followed by nine in Scotland, four in Wales and one in Northern Ireland - taking the official Covid-19 death toll to 40,261.
But the true number of coronavirus victims is known to be thousands higher.
The Government only includes laboratory-confirmed cases in its daily update, meaning patients who are suspected to have died but never got tested for the infection aren't included.
It comes as separate estimates produced by experts at Public Health England and Cambridge University today suggested the R-rate - the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects - is above the danger level of one in the North West and South West.
It must stay below one or Britain will face another crisis.
The data - fed into No 10's scientific panel SAGE - suggested the R rate was falling before lockdown was imposed and has been creeping back up since the darkest days of the outbreak at the start of April.
SAGE said the overall rate remained between 0.7 and 0.9 across the UK as a whole but admitted it may be a little higher in England.
One leading Cambridge statistician - who was not involved with the latest modelling - warned the findings were the regional update that everyone has been 'eager to have' but admitted they were the 'opposite of reassuring' and https://vacationtravel.hpage.com/top-10-richest-cities-in-india.html added: 'No wonder members of SAGE are worried.'
The PHE/Cambridge team - whose model is based on death data from NHS England and regional health officials, antibody surveillance sampling and mobility reports - also estimated 17,000 people were still being struck down with Covid-19 across England every day.
And they warned the true figure could be as high as 25,000.
This was three times the estimate from a separate government-run Covid-19 surveillance testing scheme. Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures released today - based on swabs taken of nearly 20,000 people - suggested England's outbreak has shrunk by half in the past week and is infecting around 5,500 people each day.
In tonight's Downing Street press conference, Health Secretary Matt Hancock urged protesters to avoid going to George Floyd demonstrations across the country 'for the safety of loved ones'.
He also announced that face masks will be compulsory for all medical staff in hospitals and visitors and outpatients must wear coverings from June 15.
In other developments to Britain's coronavirus crisis today:
Questions were asked about whether the lockdown was ever necessary as another study suggested the outbreak was under control before the draconian measures were imposed on March 23; Tony Blair urged Number 10 to set up a mass testing programme which would see the bulk of the UK population checked for coronavirus as he suggested that is the only way to prevent a second outbreak;Fears of a second wave were sparked after Iran became the first country in the world to report another cluster of coronavirus infections after easing its lockdown; Half of Britons are shunning Chinese products and two-thirds would like the government to impose more tariffs on imports from the communist state, according to a poll;Pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca revealed it is already manufacturing Oxford University's experimental vaccine in India, the UK and Europe amid plans to distribute 2billion doses as early as September if it works;TV presenter Kate Garraway broke down in tears as she revealed critically-ill husband Derek Draper thanked her for 'saving his life' before he slipped into a coma during his 10-week battle with coronavirus.
It comes as separate estimates produced by experts at Public Health England and Cambridge University today suggested the R-rate - the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects - is at the danger level of one in the South West
Separate data showed the R rate was around 0.94 in the East of England and was only slightly higher in London (0.95)
The estimates from the Public Health England and Cambridge University team suggested the R rate was currently the lowest in the Midlands (0.90) and the North East and Yorkshire (0.89)
However, the academics fear the R rate in the North West is 1.01 - meaning an outbreak will continue to increase.
And they said the reproduction number in the South East is likely to be 0.97
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<div class="art-ins mol-factbox news halfRHS" data-version="2" id="mol-78b5ef80-a746-11ea-8108-b506f64c5ec7" website announces 142 more coronavirus deaths